Mike Hoffman's 16 Day Forecast

I like Mike Hoffman and enjoy watching his weather forecasts on Channel 16 (WNDU in South Bend, Indiana.) However, his "16 Day Outlook" consistently forecasts temperatures that are well below what the temperatures end-up being. Here is an example from earlier in 2010:

Feb. 20: Forecast high = 34º Actual high = 35º, 1 degree below actual

Feb. 21: Forecast high = 34º Actual high = 39º, 5 degrees low actual

Feb. 22: Forecast high = 30º Actual high = 33º, 3 degrees low actual

Feb. 23: Forecast high = 28º Actual high = 35º, 7 degrees low actual

Feb. 24: Forecast high = 21º Actual high = 27º, 6 degrees low actual

Feb. 25: Forecast high = 18º Actual high = 29º, 11 degrees low actual

Feb. 26: Forecast high = 18º Actual high = 30º, 12 degrees low actual

Feb. 27: Forecast high = 22º Actual high = 34º, 12 degrees low actual

Feb. 28: Forecast high = 25º Actual high = 36º, 9 degrees low actual

Mar. 1: Forecast high = 28º Actual high = 38º, 10 degrees low actual

Mar. 2: Forecast high = 26º Actual high = 38º, 12 degrees low actual

Mar. 3: Forecast high = 28º Actual high = 38º, 10 degrees low actual

Mar. 4: Forecast high = 28º Actual high = 40º, 12 degrees low actual

Mar. 5: Forecast high = 23º Actual high = 41º, 18 degrees low actual

Mar. 6: Forecast high = 20º Actual high = 46º, 26 degrees low actual

Mar. 7: Forecast high = 20º Actual high = 50º, 30 degrees low actual

That's an average prediction of 11.5 degrees below the actual high temperature!

I'm not a meteorologist, but forecasting a temperature over 20 degrees below normal over two weeks in advance CANNOT be good for a weatherman's chances at improving his credibility. From my amateur observations, temperature departures-from-normal of over 20 degrees are relatively rare and pretty extreme when they happen.

American Idol Predictions

Steve:
Winner - Katie Stevens
Runner Up - Lee Dewyze

Kristi:
Winner - Lee Dewyze
Runner Up - Katie Stevens

Makenna:
Winner - Katie Stevens
Runner Up - Todrick Hall

We made the predictions after the initial performances by the top 24 - and didn't discuss the predictions.